No.21 Announcement of Damage Estimates for the Nankai Trough Mega Earthquake

(Inagi Newsletter July 15, 2013 issue)

On May 28, 2013, the working group of the Central Disaster Prevention Council of the Cabinet Office published the final report on measures against a Nankai Trough mega earthquake with a magnitude of 9.
The estimated damage on a national level includes 323,000 dead or missing, 9.5 million evacuees at peak times, 2,386,000 completely destroyed or burned buildings (about 20 times that of the Great East Japan Earthquake), and a total damage amount, including secondary damage, of 220.3 trillion yen (about 13 times that of the Great East Japan Earthquake), which are staggering figures.
This report indicates that the damage is widespread and severe, that there are limitations to administrative support, and that predicting earthquakes is difficult. Based on these premises, challenges and specific measures are presented.
Here are the main points,

1. Evacuation centers incorporate the concept of triage, prioritizing the acceptance of Older Adults and others.
2. Because the damage extends over a wide area, municipalities with less damage are requested to support other disaster-stricken areas.
3. It is necessary to enhance countermeasure methods through training and other means,
4. To reduce damage, it is important to have disaster prevention measures such as tsunami countermeasures and building seismic reinforcement.
5. Each person should have a food supply stockpile of at least one week.

It calls for strengthening the system of self-help, among other things.
As part of the city's response this fiscal year, regarding item 3, portable concrete demolition tools have been equipped to all fire brigade divisions.
In the ordinary education training conducted in June 2013, we implemented more practical training for rescuing lives from fallen trees and accident vehicles, along with the engine cutters and chainsaws that have been deployed so far.
Regarding 4, we are expanding seismic assessments for wooden houses and promoting the seismic retrofitting of buildings.
Regarding point 5, we ask that each citizen take responsibility. For a week's worth of supplies at home, you should have 21 liters of drinking water (3 liters per adult per day), a portable gas stove with 14 canisters, emergency food such as canned goods and crackers, a battery-operated charger for mobile phones, batteries, and a radio.
In addition, Tokyo Metropolitan Government announced a similar damage estimate on May 14, 2013, ahead of the national government. The maximum seismic intensity, liquefaction risk, and tsunami height in the 23 wards and the Tama area are lower compared to the damage estimates for the Tokyo metropolitan area earthquake announced on April 18 last year, indicating that promoting the measures taken so far will also prepare for the Nankai Trough mega earthquake.
The city will continue to work on disaster prevention measures, so we ask everyone to also take steps to prepare at home.